EV Incentives Are Gone. What Happens Now?

On September 30th, 2025, the federal $7,500 EV tax credit quietly expired—and the ripple effects are already resonating through automakers, buyers, and the charging industry. With that safety net removed, what’s next? For CPOs, site hosts, and property owners, the path ahead is less about chasing subsidies and more about navigating a more demanding, more discerning marketplace.

Immediate Impact: A Sudden Demand Reset

In the weeks following the credit’s end, analysts forecasted a 16–38% shortfall in Q4 2025 EV sales versus prior projections. Some OEMs now openly warn of a 4–5% U.S. EV share in the near term—down from more aggressive targets. Previously, leasing deals offered a workaround—manufacturers and financiers absorbed the credit, letting buyers enjoy lower payments. With that channel cut, many marginal buyers may pause their decisions.

Yet while consumer demand slows, not all segments will freeze. Fleet electrification, tied to operational efficiency and corporate mandates, continues driving incremental demand. Because fleets don’t rely on consumer incentives, they provide a foundation for charger utilization even in leaner quarters.

In the short term, expect a demand reset. Without the federal credit, some consumers will pause on EV purchases. Automakers will try to fill the gap with discounts, low-APR financing, and lease offers, but those incentives will come and go. Fleets are different. When a company runs the numbers on fuel and maintenance savings, EVs often still make sense—so fleet orders keep sales steady even when retail buyers hesitate. That matters for charging because steady, planned fleet usage can be the difference between a site that breaks even and one that struggles.

Additionally, rest assured that charging isn’t going away—in fact, it’s getting more demanding. In a world without federal incentives, every site has to stand on its own. That means tighter math and fewer speculative builds. The big swing factor will be the electric bill. Many utilities charge for the highest power you pull in a month (think of it like a “peak penalty”). When traffic is still ramping, operating costs can be jumpy. The fix won't lie in magic but rather, in efficient management. Smart software can slow charging slightly during expensive hours, and a small on-site battery can shave the worst peaks. Think of that battery like insurance for your utility bill, not a full solution.

Reliability also moves to the front of the line. Drivers remember the first time they try your station. If the session starts quickly and finishes without drama, they’ll come back. If not, they won’t. That sounds obvious, but it changes what you measure. Don’t just track “uptime.” Track first-try success—does the charger work the first time a customer plugs in? If you’re a landlord, ask your operator for that metric in plain English and make it part of your service expectations.

Policy isn’t dead; it’s just shifting. Some states are stepping up to soften the blow. Colorado, for example, is increasing its point-of-sale rebates for income-qualified buyers. The details vary, but the lesson is simple: markets will diverge. If you own assets in supportive states, EV sales—and charging sessions—will hold up better. If you operate nationally, don’t assume the same playbook will work everywhere. Adjust your pipeline and timelines to local incentives and utility realities.

What Does The Next Stretch Look Like?

From now through 2027, think of growth as lumpy but real. The best sites will be places people already go—grocery-anchored retail, healthcare, big-box centers, travel plazas—paired with fleets that create a dependable base load. After that, improvements in batteries, range, and charging speed will nudge the curve up again. The teams that survive the next two years with clean operations and disciplined spending will be in pole position.

So what should managers do right now? Start by re-running your numbers with lower traffic assumptions and a realistic view of power costs. If the site still pencils, great—move forward. If not, consider staging: pour the conduit and civil work now, set two dispensers instead of six, and add more when the cars arrive. Lock in predictable terms with your utility and your operator: clear maintenance standards, response times, and simple pricing that customers can understand. If you have fleets nearby, offer them priority access before or after public hours; that smooths your daily load and boosts revenue. And keep a close eye on your state’s incentives—they can quietly change a “maybe” project into a “yes.”

The end of the federal credit is a reset, not a retreat. It forces everyone—automakers, landlords, and charge point operators—to focus on the basics: cost control, dependable equipment, and customer-friendly pricing. Do those three things well, and you don’t need a federal coupon to make the business work. In a year defined by higher interest rates and careful spending, that’s a healthy discipline—and the right foundation for the next chapter of electrification.